If you ask what could be the deadliest scenario for Pakistan, those who have carefully been studying international designs on Pakistan would, without thinking, reply; Balkanization. A little while ago, this sounded as a total non-sense. However, as the things are unfolding, the current situation including Karachi killings, Baloch insurgency, military-bashing, economic melt-down and terrorist attacks, has started becoming clearly meaningful. This impasse has been reached, a great deal, through a carefully authored script. Even the actors are performing perfectly faithfully. If you look into newspaper archives and care to read an article in the GlobalResearch published on December 30, 2007, you would be horrified.
According to the article, which was written during Musharraf regime, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has created conditions which contribute to the ongoing destabilization and fragmentation of Pakistan as a Nation. The article seems to be based on some solid inside information when it says that (a) the fake elections supported by the “international community” scheduled for January 2008, even if they were to be carried out, would not be accepted as legitimate, thereby creating a political impasse; (b) various American destabilization plans, known for months by officials and analysts, proposed the toppling of Pakistan’s military; (c) “Regime change” with a view to ensuring continuity under military rule is no longer the main thrust of US foreign policy. The regime of Pervez Musharraf cannot prevail. Washington’s foreign policy course is to actively promote the political fragmentation and balkanization of Pakistan as a nation.
Does it not sound like prophecy? The US anticipated that the new political leadership will promote US imperial interests under the disguise of “decentralization”, to the weakening of the central government and the fracture of Pakistan’s fragile federal structure.
Already in 2005, a report by the US National Intelligence Council and the CIA forecast a “Yugoslav-like fate” for Pakistan “in a decade with the country riven by civil war, bloodshed and inter-provincial rivalries, as seen recently in Balochistan.” According to the NIC-CIA, Pakistan is slated to become a “failed state” by 2015, “as it would be affected by civil war, complete Talibanization and struggle for control of its nuclear weapons”. The US course consists in fomenting social, ethnic and factional divisions and political fragmentation, including the territorial breakup of Pakistan. This course of action is also dictated by US war plans in relation to both Afghanistan and Iran.
The article also discusses covert support to Baloch nationalists in order for the US to keep Pakistan away from oil and gas reserves. There are other articles in the blogosphere which give in-depth analysis of these designs and highlight that Pakistan’s strategic asset of Gwadar port and its relations with China are among the reasons that those who can redraw the map of the world want to redraw the map of Pakistan.
This may not be startling news to the readers but this should serve to inspire caution; those who are demanding new provinces, as if this will solve all the problems confronting Pakistan of today, should think again. They may be innocently falling into a deadly trap and made to follow the sinister plan. The reckless break-up of Pakistan into ethnic-based provinces could lead to country’s fragmentation. Those who want to “balkanize” Pakistan want to break its security establishment and the first target is Punjab which in view of many is the “stronghold” of this establishment. Another article in July 6, 2010 edition of Huffington Post explains the plan further when it says that the most popular approach to fragmentation is to break off and allow Afghanistan to absorb Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which would unite the Pashtun tribes. In addition, the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh would become independent sovereign states, leaving Punjab as a standalone entity.
The article explains that Balkanization is based on the (provocative) premise that the weak central government in Islamabad is incapable of governing Pakistan’s frontiers, which have become the number one source of regional instability. Apart from the fact that Pakistan’s central government is not run by the so-called Punjabi elite, a perception is being created that Punjab is the source of all troubles.
In view of these designs, please exercise caution before demanding Punjab break-up.